Reliability analysis and optimal version-updating for open source software

Context: Although reliability is a major concern of most open source projects, research on this problem has attracted attention only recently. In addition, the optimal versiondating for open source software considering its special properties is not yet discussed. Objective: In this paper, the reliability analysis and optimal version-updating for open source software are studied. Method: A modified non-homogeneous Poisson process model is developed for open source software reliability modeling and analysis. Based on this model, optimal versionupdating for open source software is investigated as well. In the decision process, the rapid release strategy and the level of reliability are the two most important factors. However, they are essentially contradicting with each other. In order to consider these two conflicting factors simultaneously, a new decision model based on multi-attribute utility theory is proposed. Results: Our models are tested on the real world data sets from two famous open source projects: Apache and GNOME. It is found that traditional software reliability models provide overestimations of the reliability of open source software. In addition, the proposed decision model can help management to make a rational decision on the optimal version-updating for open source software. Conclusion: Empirical results reveal that the proposed model for open source software reliability can describe the failure process more accurately. Furthermore, it can be seen that the proposed decision model can assist management to appropriately determine the optimal version-update time for open source software.